Flock · Return

Flock · investment thesis

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If we're wrong–

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If we're right–

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Weighted by odds–

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Cities

City	Metro pop.	Cars	Depots	Starts (+yrs)	Launch year	Lock-in	Build capital	EBITDA / yr

Cars scale with metro population at the density set below (Vancouver's 400 cars = about 15 per 100K residents). "Starts" is years after the first approval that a city's pilot depot begins; Ontario and Quebec approve robotaxis on their own timelines. Populations: 2021 Census metro areas.

Why the position is worth holding early

Parkades are finiteAbove-grade parkades inside the 10-minute core are a short list. An option today costs a fraction of what the space is worth once fleets need it.

Power goes to whoever asks firstUtilities connect large new loads in the order they apply. On a constrained downtown feeder, the next applicant waits or pays for the upgrade. That is how BC Hydro works; we are confirming each province.

One network, every operatorCharging, cleaning and staging don't depend on whose cars win. A national operator wants one depot partner across Canada, not ten local ones. Flock gets paid per car, per month, by whichever fleet arrives.

Assumptions

The bet

Stage 0, first city: lock sites + power queueParkade options, legal, utility load studies and 12 months of a lean team.

Lock-in per additional cityOptions, legal and utility filings. The team is already paid for.

Lock every city in 2027. Takes the queue position everywhere before anyone else, but all of it is at risk if robotaxis are late. Unticked, each city is locked the year before it launches.

Cost to keep holding, per extra yearOption renewals and a lean team while waiting. Adds $100K a year for each extra city locked early.

First robotaxi approval (first province)Assumed BC first. The first pilot depot builds this year; other cities follow by their offset.

Odds they arrive in time

If they don't, walk away after

The payoff

Cars per 100K residents15 gives Vancouver a 400-car launch fleet. The Toronto scenario on the Investors page implies about 360 at maturity.

Depot fee per car per month

Cost to serve per car, net of energy marginLabour, stall lease, utility demand charge and site opex, less the margin on resold energy.

Build capital per depotChargers, service upgrade, civil works, contingency, ramp-up losses and working capital.

Value multiple on EBITDAContracted infrastructure with long leases typically trades at 10–15×.

Cash by year, if we're right

Year	What happens	Cash	Cumulative

What the fee does to the outcome

Fee / car / mo	EBITDA / yr	Network value	Value created

Value created = network value minus all capital spent (Stage 0, holding years and every depot). It ignores dilution and debt, so it's the size of the prize, not any one investor's share.

These are working numbers, not a forecast. Every input above is an assumption you can change. The ones that decide the outcome are the depot fee, the timing of approval and how many cities are locked early.

Talk to Flock